In a revealing twist, Nigeria’s trade sector is now flexing serious economic muscle — contributing a staggering ₦40.71 trillion to the nation’s GDP in the first half of 2025. This isn’t pocket change. It’s proof that trade — especially non-oil exports and gas — is rapidly reshaping the structure of the Nigerian economy.
Trade Dominates: Big Gains, Bigger Questions
Fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows a sharp acceleration: trade added ₦14.59 trillion to GDP in Q1, then blasted to ₦26.12 trillion in Q2 — a jaw-dropping 78.9% quarter-on-quarter jump. Compared to the first half of 2024, the sector is up roughly 29.1%.
On the trade balance sheet, Nigeria surprisingly looks strong: ₦43.35 trillion in exports versus ₦30.71 trillion in imports, leaving a ₦12.64 trillion surplus. Analysts attribute much of this to rising non-oil exports and natural gas sales.
What’s Fueling the Boom?
Analysts and business leaders point to policy changes, increased gas production, and recovering activity in the petroleum value chain. According to Gabriel Idahosa, President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), stronger non-oil exports and expanded LNG, CNG, and LPG output are pushing trade upward.
“We’re producing more liquefied natural gas, compressed natural gas… selling them, and that is lifting our trade,” Idahosa explained. Domestic refining also plays a role — Nigerian-operated refineries and new downstream players are contributing to higher trade activity.
But Manufacturing Isn’t Keeping Up
Despite the impressive trade performance, Nigeria’s manufacturing sector is struggling to match that momentum. Idahosa warns that the rise in trade hasn’t led to a parallel rise in industrial output, noting that consumer demand is weak, production costs are high, and many manufacturers are sitting on piles of unsold goods.
Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), is more blunt: “Trade is growing because manufacturing is slowing down. When local factories slow or shut, imports step in — and that’s dangerous.” He cautions that Nigeria risks “exporting jobs and importing poverty” if manufacturing does not recover.
The Real GDP Growth Puzzle
Interestingly, real GDP growth for the trade sector actually dipped — from 1.78% in Q1 to 1.29% in Q2. Economists say this is not a red flag.
Prof. Segun Ajibola, former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, attributes the drop to seasonal business cycles. Second-quarter activity in other sectors simply outpaced trade. His bigger concern is what type of trade is expanding.
“If the growth is export-driven, fantastic. But if it’s driven by imports, our dependence on the rest of the world deepens,” he warned.
Non-Oil Exports Are Finally Showing Muscle
Non-oil exports rose sharply, with the Nigerian Export Promotion Council reporting $3.225 billion in export earnings in the first half of 2025 — up nearly 20% year-on-year.
The export mix is shifting too. Semi-processed and refined goods are taking a bigger share of the basket. Cocoa remains strong, but urea, fertilisers, and other value-added products are gaining traction.
Market access under AfCFTA, better quality control, and expanded exporter training programmes are also helping lift export numbers.
Oil Slips While Non-Crude Surges
Crude oil exports dropped by ₦3.18 trillion (about 11%) in H1 2025. But non-crude exports surged to ₦18.43 trillion, accounting for 41% of total exports — up from 24% a year earlier.
Risks & Roadblocks
Behind the upbeat numbers are several concerns:
- Fuel imports still cost Nigeria over ₦4 trillion in H1 2025 — a massive drag.
- High energy costs continue to cripple local manufacturing.
- Weak consumer demand undercuts domestic production.
- Industrial policy gaps make it hard for trade gains to translate into real sector growth.
The Way Forward
Experts say Nigeria must do three things urgently:
- Deploy a smarter industrial strategy tailored for light and medium manufacturing.
- Double down on export-driven, value-added production.
- Revive domestic purchasing power through inflation control and better energy access.
Bottom Line
Nigeria’s trade sector is rising — fast — and the numbers show a clear shift away from crude dependence. But without a manufacturing revival, this boom could remain shallow, driven more by imports than true productivity. Trade is pulling its weight, but the real test is whether the rest of the economy catches up.