In Abu Dhabi yesterday, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) made a bold, no-holds-barred pronouncement: Nigeria is gunning for 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production by 2027, backed by fresh investment of up to $60 billion by 2030.
Spearing that statement was NNPC’s newly minted Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, speaking at the “Energy Talk” session of ADIPEC 2025 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Hosted by Pulitzer prize-winning energy writer Daniel Yergin, the forum turned into Nigeria’s platform to flip the script on its energy story.
Where we are, where we’re headed
Ojulari reminded the gathering that Nigeria’s output is not sitting at aspirational levels—it’s moving. Public data puts the average crude and condensate output in July 2025 at 1.71 million bpd (1.507 million crude + ~0.205 million condensate). (ThisDay Live) Other reports place recent figures at ~1.8 million bpd. (Nairametrics)
Yet—even at 1.7-1.8 million bpd—the gap to 2 million is neither trivial nor guaranteed. Challenges around stolen oil, ageing infrastructure and high operating costs persist. (The Guardian)
But the message loud and clear: NNPC is explicitly targeting ≥2 million bpd by 2027, with a long-term view to 3 million bpd by around 2030. (Business Times)
On investment: Ojulari laid out the roadmap—$30 billion by 2027, scaling to $60 billion by 2030—to underpin the production ramp-up and transformation of Nigeria’s energy sector. (The Cable)
The “how” of the plan
During the session, Ojulari didn’t shy away from naming key operational levers:
- Strengthened partnerships with Independent Oil Companies (IOCs) and other industry participants to break the hold of legacy blockers and realign on value.
- A push on major infrastructure: he mentioned, for example, the imminent completion of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline and the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) Pipeline, both critical for gas monetisation and energy security.
- Gas-to-value thrust: under the banner of the Presidential CNG Initiative, autogas corridors and dry-gas development are on the front burner.
- A shift under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and beyond: new government incentives, robust fiscal terms and structural reform to attract capital into deep-water, mid-stream and downstream opportunity.
As he put it, “We are not just participating in the energy transition, we are shaping it from an African perspective.”
The stakes & the reality check
Now the bold claims. We must recognise the fine print and the risks behind them.
- Nigeria’s recent remittances: For example, production shortfalls in the first five months of 2025 left the federation account with a deficit of about $5.7 billion. (The Guardian)
- Domestic refining remains weak: While targets are cited (200 kbpd by 2027, 500 kbpd by 2030), actual capacity utilisation remains far below potential. (ThisDay Live)
- Oil theft, vandalism and pipeline security continue to bite—these aren’t just peripheral issues but core obstacles to scaling production.
- The investment numbers ($30 bn / $60 bn) are ambitious in a global energy climate that is volatile, competition-intensive, and sensitive to ESG pressures.
That said: The momentum is real. The appointment of Bayo Ojulari and a restructured board of NNPC speak to a shift in narrative. (Reuters)
Why this matters (and why you should care)
For Nigeria—Africa’s largest oil producer—hitting these targets could mean more than barrels. We’re talking revenue lift, jobs, industrial clusters, tech transfer, and crucially, energy access for millions. Experience tells us that the oil sector, when turned into a growth engine, can ripple into agriculture, manufacturing, services, and export capacity.
For global energy markets: A ramp-up in Nigerian output shifts supply dynamics in Africa, influences global crude flows, and sends a signal to investors that the continent is open for serious business, not just token deals.
For ordinary Nigerians? If the plan works: cheaper energy (gas, CNG, autogas), more stable electricity from monetised gas, greater participation in the energy value chain—and potentially fewer fuel imports.
The takeaway
NNPC has laid down a gauntlet: 2 million bpd by 2027, $60 billion investment by 2030, and a broader ambition of 3 million bpd and an industrialised energy cluster in the long term. The strategy is built around partnerships, infrastructure, gas monetisation and reform. But ambition alone doesn’t guarantee success. Implementation, security, cost control, and credible investor flows will determine whether the target becomes reality—or just another poster in Abuja.
At ADIPEC 2025, Nigeria did more than attend—it proclaimed its intention to play the game differently. The world is watching.